By challenging mental maps, scenario planning helps us to re-perceive the future.Peter Schwartz is the author of In Defense of Selfishness: Why the Code of Self-Sacrifice Is Unjust and Destructive (St. But given the pace and nature of change, their maps may be obsolete. Many decision makers, especially successful ones, have profited from good mental maps. In the end, well-designed scenarios confront the mental maps that business leaders carry around about how the world works. Schwartz lays out the rigor involved in constructing and using scenarios, and draws rich examples of successful cases, such as Royal Dutch Shell in the 1980s. They are not about getting the future right, but about making better decisions today. Good scenarios, argues Schwartz, incorporate rigorous analysis, but are also driven by insightful imagination. Scenarios are rich, data-driven stories about tomorrow that address important, immediate choices for business leaders. Peter Schwartz asserts that we have good tools to help manage the risk and parse the choices leaders must make: enter Scenario Planning. Scenarios for Navigating an Uncertain Worldīusiness is fraught with uncertainty, more than ever before. Peter Schwartz is available to advise your organization via virtual and in-person consulting meetings, interactive workshops and customized keynotes through the exclusive representation of Stern Speakers & Advisors, a division of Stern Strategy Group ® In 2007, Schwartz moderated a forum titled “The Impact of Web 2.0 and Emerging Social Network Models” as part of the World Economic Forum in Davos. He has worked as a consultant on several movies, including “Minority Report”, “Deep Impact”, “Sneakers”, and “WarGames.” He serves on the board of directors for the Long Now Foundation. He also co-authored the Pentagon’s “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security”. “ China’s Futures” (Jossey-Bass, January 2000), is a vision of several different potential futures for China. His book “ When Good Companies Do Bad Things” (Wiley, April 1999), is an argument for corporate responsibility in an age of corruption. He also wrote “ The Long Boom” (Perseus, September 1999), with co-authors Peter Leyden and Joel Hyatt, which is about the future of the global economy. “ Inevitable Surprises” (Gotham, June 2003) is a look at the forces at play in today’s world, and how they will continue to affect the world. His first book, “ The Art of the Long View” (Doubleday, April 1996) is considered by many to be the seminal publication on scenario planning, and is used as a textbook by many business schools. Schwartz has written several books, on a variety of future-oriented topics. GBN became the premier scenarios-based consultancy, which Schwartz described as an “information hunting and gathering company.” In his early career, Schwartz led the scenario team at Royal Dutch/Shell in the 1980s, where many of the scenario tools he pioneered were used to great advantage. He has a long and storied history of pioneering futures-based work. Schwartz founded the Global Business Network (GBN) in 1988 in his Berkeley basement with several close friends, including Napier Collyns, Jay Ogilvy and Stewart Brand. His research and scenario work encompasses the fast-moving world of connected business, energy resources and the environment, technology, telecommunications, media and entertainment, aerospace, and national security. An internationally renowned futurist and business strategist, Peter Schwartz specializes in scenario planning, working with corporations, governments, and institutions to create alternative perspectives of the future and develop robust strategies for a changing and uncertain world.
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